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Kareem Hunt

Kareem Hunt Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns

Kareem Hunt Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+177/-261).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +210 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +177.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 2nd-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 49.3% red zone run rate.

The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.

Kareem Hunt has run for 0.55 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in the NFL among running backs (94th percentile).

Opposing teams have run for the 9th-most touchdowns in the league (1.00 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season.

The Atlanta Falcons linebackers grade out as the 4th-worst LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Kareem Hunt to be a much smaller piece of his team's running game near the goal line this week (27.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (45.8% in games he has played).

The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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