Kareem Hunt Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Kareem Hunt

NFL · Player Props

Kareem Hunt

RB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing TD

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Kareem Hunt Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+283/-488).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -448 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -488.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-most run-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 50.6% red zone run rate.
The Cleveland Browns have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.4 plays per game.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
Kareem Hunt has run for 0.38 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (80th percentile).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 9th-most TDs in the league (1.11 per game) vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

Favors Under

The Browns are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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