Kareem Hunt Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Kareem Hunt

RB · Cleveland Browns

Carries

Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Kareem Hunt Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+110/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 7th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Kareem Hunt has been on the field for 44.3% of his team's snaps since the start of last season, ranking him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The Carolina Panthers safeties project as the 29th-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Cleveland Browns have elected to go for it on 4th down 22.2% of the time since the start of last season (9th-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Cleveland Browns will be rolling with backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 4th-worst paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.42 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.