Kalif Raymond Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Kalif Raymond

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2023 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Kalif Raymond Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Kalif Raymond has been a less important option in his team's offense this season, staying on the field for just 35.0% of snaps compared to 48.5% last season.
Kalif Raymond's receiving effectiveness has been refined this year, accumulating 10.88 yards-per-target compared to a mere 9.65 mark last year.
Kalif Raymond has been among the leading wideouts in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging an impressive 5.35 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 82nd percentile.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has shown weak efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, allowing 9.22 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in the league.

Favors Under

The model projects the Lions as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
The Lions offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.