Kalif Raymond Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Kalif Raymond

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Kalif Raymond Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per snap.
Kalif Raymond has been among the leading wideouts in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging an impressive 5.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 77th percentile.
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Kalif Raymond has gone out for fewer passes this season (27.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (77.6%).
Kalif Raymond has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (34.0 per game) than he did last year (45.0 per game).
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.