Kalif Raymond Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Kalif Raymond

NFL · Player Props

Kalif Raymond

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM EST

Analysis

Kalif Raymond Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+377/-770).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -613 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -770.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.7 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 4th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Kalif Raymond to be a more important option in his team's passing game near the goal line this week (11.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (3.4% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Kalif Raymond has put up quite a few less air yards this season (37.0 per game) than he did last season (45.0 per game).
Kalif Raymond's 20.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 35.3.
The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Kalif Raymond's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.5% to 61.4%.
Kalif Raymond grades out in the 1st percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.

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