Kalif Raymond Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Kalif Raymond

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 2:55 PM UTC

Analysis

Kalif Raymond Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+432/-977).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Kalif Raymond to be much more involved in his offense's air attack near the end zone this week (7.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Kalif Raymond has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (34.0 per game) than he did last year (45.0 per game).
Kalif Raymond's 15.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 35.3.
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (59.7%) versus WRs this year (59.7%).
The New England Patriots defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.