Kalif Raymond Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Kalif Raymond

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Kalif Raymond Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+280/-479).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +311 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +280.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Kalif Raymond to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing game near the end zone this week (14.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks safeties profile as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Kalif Raymond's 6.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 35.3.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has surrendered the 2nd-least touchdowns through the air in the league to wideouts: 0.60 per game since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a lowly 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.