Kadarius Toney Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Kadarius Toney

NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+160/-213).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -149 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -213.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 68.4% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.1 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Kadarius Toney's pass-catching performance improved this season, notching 2.3 adjusted catches compared to a mere 0.2 last season.
This year, the feeble Dolphins pass defense has been torched for a monstrous 71.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 7th-highest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

Kadarius Toney has run a route on 25.1% of his team's passing plays this year, placing him in the 24th percentile among wideouts.
The Miami Dolphins safeties project as the best safety corps in the league this year in defending receivers.

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