Kadarius Toney Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Kadarius Toney

NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs to run the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Kadarius Toney has run a route on 20.1% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking in the 22nd percentile among WRs.
Kadarius Toney has been among the worst WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 0.7 receptions per game while ranking in the 5th percentile among wide receivers.
The Jets pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.9%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (62.9%).

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