Kadarius Toney Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Kadarius Toney

NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs offense as the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has allowed the 9th-highest Completion% in football (68.1%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (68.1%).
The Chicago Bears linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 12.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the league.
Kadarius Toney has run a route on 23.1% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 13th percentile among wide receivers.
Kadarius Toney has been among the worst wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a measly 0.7 receptions per game while checking in at the 4th percentile among WRs.
Kadarius Toney has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching just 58.6% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 24th percentile among wide receivers

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