Kadarius Toney Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Kadarius Toney

NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Kadarius Toney's 2.1 adjusted receptions per game this season represents a substantial boost in his receiving ability over last season's 0.2 figure.
Kadarius Toney comes in as one of the best possession receivers in the league, completing a terrific 74.9% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 86th percentile among wideouts.
This year, the weak Patriots pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 66.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 10th-biggest rate in the league.
The New England cornerbacks project as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.
Kadarius Toney has run a route on 24.9% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 25th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

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