Kadarius Toney Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Kadarius Toney

NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-208/+160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +165 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their plays: the 2nd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.3 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Kadarius Toney's receiving skills have gotten better this year, totaling 2.2 adjusted receptions vs just 0.2 last year.
The Philadelphia cornerbacks profile as the worst CB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Kadarius Toney has run a route on 23.6% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 24th percentile when it comes to WRs.
This year, the fierce Philadelphia Eagles defense has surrendered a puny 62.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 9th-lowest rate in the league.

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