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Kadarius Toney

Kadarius Toney Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Kadarius Toney Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-208/+160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +165 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +160.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their plays: the 2nd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 41.3 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
  • Kadarius Toney's receiving skills have gotten better this year, totaling 2.2 adjusted receptions vs just 0.2 last year.
  • The Philadelphia cornerbacks profile as the worst CB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
  • Kadarius Toney has run a route on 23.6% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 24th percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • This year, the fierce Philadelphia Eagles defense has surrendered a puny 62.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 9th-lowest rate in the league.

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