Kadarius Toney Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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Kadarius Toney

NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 12, 2023 10:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-160/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Kadarius Toney has been among the most reliable receivers in football, completing a stellar 74.4% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 90th percentile among WRs.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line has given their quarterback 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: least in the league.
Kadarius Toney has been less involved as a potential target this year (22.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (47.3%).
Kadarius Toney's receiving skills have worsened this year, accumulating just 0.2 yards per game vs 4.4 last year.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.8%) to wideouts this year (61.8%).

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