Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Kadarius Toney

NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 13, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the most pass-heavy team in football (69.3% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.
Kadarius Toney has put up a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (17.0) this season than he did last season (0.0).
Kadarius Toney has been among the best wideouts in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a terrific 8.07 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 93rd percentile.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.5%) to WRs this year (79.5%).
The Broncos pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency against WRs this year, allowing 10.27 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in football.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a heavy 10.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being called for in this game) typically mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased run volume.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Broncos, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (just 32.4 per game) this year.
With an exceptional 22.9% Snap% (23rd percentile) this year, Kadarius Toney has been as one of the running backs with the highest volume in the league.

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