Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs offense as the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has shown bad efficiency against WRs since the start of last season, surrendering 9.92 yards-per-target to the position: the most in football.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.37 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the most in football.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 12.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the league.
Kadarius Toney has run a route on 23.1% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 13th percentile among wide receivers.
Kadarius Toney has posted a paltry 9.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 15th percentile among wide receivers.
Kadarius Toney has been among the bottom WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 4.0 yards per game while ranking in the 2nd percentile among WRs.