Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-129/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Kadarius Toney's 15.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year marks a substantial improvement in his pass-catching ability over last year's 0.0 figure.
Kadarius Toney comes in as one of the best possession receivers in the league, completing a terrific 74.9% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 86th percentile among wideouts.
Kadarius Toney is positioned as one of the leading wideouts in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a terrific 6.04 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 83rd percentile.
This year, the weak Patriots pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 66.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 10th-biggest rate in the league.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.
Kadarius Toney has run a route on 24.9% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 25th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Kadarius Toney has accumulated a feeble 8.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 19th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Kadarius Toney is positioned as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the league, averaging a mere 5.49 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 22nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers
This year, the fierce New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wideouts: a feeble 3.5 YAC.