Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 6th-most in football.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Kadarius Toney has been among the most reliable receivers in the league, hauling in a terrific 74.4% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.
Kadarius Toney has been among the best wide receivers in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a terrific 5.49 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 85th percentile.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Kadarius Toney to be a less important option in his team's passing game this week (7.8% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (14.4% in games he has played).
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.97 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to pass rush.