Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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Kadarius Toney

NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 12, 2023 6:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Kadarius Toney has been among the most reliable receivers in football, completing a stellar 74.4% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 90th percentile among WRs.
Kadarius Toney has been among the top wide receivers in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging an impressive 6.95 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: least in the league.
Kadarius Toney has been less involved as a potential target this year (22.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (47.3%).
Kadarius Toney has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (8.0 per game) than he did last year (35.0 per game).
Kadarius Toney has accumulated many fewer receiving yards per game (0.0) this season than he did last season (47.0).

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