Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Kadarius Toney has been among the best pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 47.0 yards per game while ranking in the 75th percentile.
Kadarius Toney has been among the best wideouts in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging an impressive 5.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 89th percentile.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-highest Completion% in football (70.3%) to wideouts since the start of last season (70.3%).
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 56.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New York Giants have run the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 60.8 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Kadarius Toney to be a much smaller part of his offense's pass game this week (9.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (14.7% in games he has played).
The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.