Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 36.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Kadarius Toney has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a terrific 74.4% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
Kadarius Toney has been among the best wideouts in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a stellar 6.95 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 8.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Kadarius Toney has been used less as a potential target this season (22.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (47.3%).
Kadarius Toney has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (8.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).
Kadarius Toney has posted a lot fewer receiving yards per game (0.0) this season than he did last season (47.0).
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.41 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the NFL.