Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Kadarius Toney

NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-150/+120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Kadarius Toney to total 6.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Kadarius Toney to be much more involved in his team's passing offense this week (16.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.9% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in football.
Kadarius Toney has notched far fewer air yards this year (7.0 per game) than he did last year (35.0 per game).
Kadarius Toney has notched many fewer receiving yards per game (22.0) this season than he did last season (47.0).
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.31 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.

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