Kadarius Toney Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Kadarius Toney

NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Kadarius Toney to be much more involved in his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (16.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (8.3% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Kadarius Toney's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 74.8% to 80.0%.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Completion% in football (69.5%) to wide receivers this year (69.5%).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in football.
Kadarius Toney has notched far fewer air yards this year (7.0 per game) than he did last year (35.0 per game).
Kadarius Toney's 12.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 32.5.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

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