Kadarius Toney Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+352/-687).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +352 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +352.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Kadarius Toney to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass attack near the end zone this week (11.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.3% in games he has played).
Kadarius Toney has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in a stellar 75.2% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 89th percentile among WRs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has conceded the 5th-most passing touchdowns in football to wideouts: 1.22 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Kadarius Toney's 6.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 32.5.
Kadarius Toney ranks in the 0th percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (63.1%) to wideouts this year (63.1%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in football since the start of last season.