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Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs New Orleans Saints

Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+160/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -180 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -200.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Saints are forecasted by the projections to run 65.5 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-most among all teams this week.

The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Juwan Johnson's 77.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this season conveys a noteable progression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 64.1% rate.

This year, the anemic Chargers pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 81.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 9th-largest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Saints to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.0% pass rate.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Chargers, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.3 per game) this year.

Juwan Johnson's 18.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 30.8.

In regards to pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Saints ranks as the worst in the league this year.

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