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Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams

Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-102/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -128.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the New Orleans Saints to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Juwan Johnson's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 64.1% to 79.6%.

As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Los Angeles's group of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-least pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 56.7% pass rate.

Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Rams, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.5 per game) this year.

Juwan Johnson's 21.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 30.8.

The New Orleans offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.

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