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Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland Browns

Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+100/-130).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 136.9 plays on offense run: the highest number among all games this week.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.

In this contest, Juwan Johnson is projected by the projection model to finish in the 84th percentile among TEs with 4.9 targets.

Juwan Johnson's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 64.1% to 76.9%.

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Cleveland's unit has been awful this year, projecting as the 10th-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 5th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (56.6% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New Orleans Saints.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.

Juwan Johnson's 21.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 30.8.

The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

The Browns pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (61.8%) vs. TEs this year (61.8%).

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