Juwan Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-195/+148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +155 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Saints this year (a monstrous 65.5 per game on average).
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
The Bears pass defense has surrendered the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (81.7%) vs. tight ends this year (81.7%).
When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Chicago's unit has been very bad this year, profiling as the worst in football.

Favors Under

The Saints are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Juwan Johnson has been incorporated much less in his team's passing game.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Saints profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year.
Juwan Johnson's 56.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this season signifies a significant diminishment in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 67.7% mark.

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