Juwan Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -100 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The Saints have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 63.4 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
In this week's contest, Juwan Johnson is forecasted by the projections to slot into the 79th percentile among TEs with 4.3 targets.
The Panthers pass defense has been torched for the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (76.9%) versus TEs this year (76.9%).

Favors Under

A running game script is indicated by the Saints being a 5.5-point favorite in this game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
Juwan Johnson's 24.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 30.4.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Saints grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year.
Juwan Johnson's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 67.7% to 55.5%.

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