Juwan Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs New Orleans Saints · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Juwan Johnson has gone out for fewer passes this year (68.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (34.6%).
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to garner 4.9 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
Juwan Johnson's pass-catching performance been refined this year, averaging 2.5 yards per game vs a mere 1.1 last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.5% pass rate.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.5 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-least in the league.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (65.6%) vs. tight ends this year (65.6%).
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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