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Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 6

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints will be rolling out backup quarterback Spencer Rattler in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.62 seconds per play.

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.

Opposing offenses have averaged 43.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Buccaneers defense this year: 2nd-most in football.

Juwan Johnson's 88.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this year reflects a significant growth in his receiving skills over last year's 64.1% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New Orleans Saints to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the 6th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Juwan Johnson has run fewer routes this season (55.4% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (67.1%).

After accruing 37.0 air yards per game last season, Juwan Johnson has seen a big decrease this season, currently sitting at 9.0 per game.

The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all passing game stats across the board.

Juwan Johnson has been one of the weakest TEs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 3.70 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 19th percentile.

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