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Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 138.8 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.

The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.

In this week's contest, Juwan Johnson is projected by the projections to finish in the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.4 targets.

The model projects Juwan Johnson to be much more involved in his team's air attack in this contest (16.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (11.0% in games he has played).

Juwan Johnson's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 64.1% to 80.5%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the New Orleans Saints as the 10th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

After averaging 37.0 air yards per game last season, Juwan Johnson has regressed heavily this season, currently averaging 25.0 per game.

The New Orleans Saints O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all pass game metrics across the board.

With a feeble 3.24 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (12th percentile) this year, Juwan Johnson rates as one of the top TEs in the pass game in the league in the open field.

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