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Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints are a huge 14.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Saints to run the most total plays on the slate this week with 69.8 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may drop.

Opposing teams have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense this year: 9th-most in football.

This week, Juwan Johnson is predicted by the projection model to position himself in the 91st percentile among TEs with 6.6 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the least pass-oriented team in football (55.3% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Saints.

Juwan Johnson has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this year (25.0 per game) than he did last year (37.0 per game).

The Saints O-line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

With a feeble 3.28 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (12th percentile) this year, Juwan Johnson places among the leading pass-catching tight ends in the NFL in the open field.

The Packers pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.98 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-fewest in football.

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