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Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland Browns

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 136.9 plays on offense run: the highest number among all games this week.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.

In this contest, Juwan Johnson is projected by the projection model to finish in the 84th percentile among TEs with 4.9 targets.

Juwan Johnson's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 64.1% to 76.9%.

Juwan Johnson's pass-game effectiveness has improved this season, compiling 8.47 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 6.51 figure last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 5th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (56.6% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New Orleans Saints.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.

Juwan Johnson has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (21.0 per game) than he did last season (37.0 per game).

Juwan Johnson's 21.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 30.8.

The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

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