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Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland Browns

 
 
 
Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ +115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 136.9 plays on offense run: the highest number among all games this week.
  • The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
  • In this contest, Juwan Johnson is projected by the projection model to finish in the 84th percentile among TEs with 4.9 targets.
  • Juwan Johnson's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 64.1% to 76.9%.
  • Juwan Johnson's pass-game effectiveness has improved this season, compiling 8.47 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 6.51 figure last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Right now, the 5th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (56.6% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New Orleans Saints.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.
  • Juwan Johnson has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (21.0 per game) than he did last season (37.0 per game).
  • Juwan Johnson's 21.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 30.8.
  • The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

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