Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-139/+108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Saints offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect Juwan Johnson to earn 4.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
As it relates to air yards, Juwan Johnson ranks in the lofty 90th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accruing a whopping 35.0 per game.
Juwan Johnson has been among the best pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 30.0 yards per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
Juwan Johnson's 23.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 30.4.
The Saints O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Juwan Johnson's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.7% to 58.8%.
Juwan Johnson's receiving efficiency has declined this season, totaling just 5.29 yards-per-target compared to a 8.39 figure last season.

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