Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 10:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The Saints have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 63.4 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
In this week's contest, Juwan Johnson is forecasted by the projections to slot into the 79th percentile among TEs with 4.3 targets.
The Panthers pass defense has displayed poor efficiency against TEs this year, allowing 8.29 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in the league.

Favors Under

A running game script is indicated by the Saints being a 5.5-point favorite in this game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
After accumulating 37.0 air yards per game last season, Juwan Johnson has regressed heavily this season, currently pacing 29.0 per game.
Juwan Johnson's 24.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 30.4.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Saints grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year.

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