Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Saints to call the 6th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Saints this year (a whopping 64.7 per game on average).
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
Juwan Johnson's talent in generating extra yardage have been refined this year, totaling 4.85 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 3.38 mark last year.

Favors Under

Juwan Johnson has notched far fewer air yards this year (25.0 per game) than he did last year (37.0 per game).
Juwan Johnson's 24.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 30.4.
As it relates to pass protection (and the importance it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Saints grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year.
Juwan Johnson's 21.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year illustrates a substantial regression in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 32.0 mark.
Juwan Johnson's pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, notching a mere 5.54 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.39 rate last year.