Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 21, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -143 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup QB Andy Dalton in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Juwan Johnson has been used less as a potential target this year (68.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (34.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to earn 4.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 10th-least in football.
Juwan Johnson's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 63.2% to 60.1%.
Juwan Johnson's receiving efficiency has tailed off this year, totaling a mere 7.17 yards-per-target vs a 9.21 mark last year.
Juwan Johnson has been among the weakest TEs in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.71 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 13th percentile.

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