Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to garner 4.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
Juwan Johnson has posted quite a few more air yards this year (47.0 per game) than he did last year (17.0 per game).
Juwan Johnson's 27.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 14.2.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 7th-least in football.
Juwan Johnson's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 63.2% to 50.0%.
Juwan Johnson's pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this season, compiling a mere 6.82 yards-per-target vs a 9.21 mark last season.
Juwan Johnson has been among the bottom TEs in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 7th percentile.

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