Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (+115/-146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup quarterback Andy Dalton in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Juwan Johnson has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (70.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (34.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to earn 4.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among tight ends.
Juwan Johnson has compiled far more air yards this season (35.0 per game) than he did last season (17.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Juwan Johnson's pass-catching efficiency has worsened this year, accumulating a mere 7.65 yards-per-target compared to a 9.20 rate last year.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.1%) to TEs this year (63.1%).
The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends project as the 4th-best group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

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