Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-112/-117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be starting backup QB Andy Dalton in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Juwan Johnson has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (70.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (34.8%).
Juwan Johnson has accumulated quite a few more air yards this year (32.0 per game) than he did last year (17.0 per game).
Juwan Johnson has put up many more receiving yards per game (27.0) this year than he did last year (16.0).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Juwan Johnson's pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this season, averaging a mere 7.67 yards-per-target vs a 9.20 mark last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers project as the 8th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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