Juwan Johnson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+294/-516).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +324 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +294.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.79 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Juwan Johnson has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 14.3% this year, which puts him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
Juwan Johnson has compiled far more air yards this year (35.0 per game) than he did last year (17.0 per game).
Juwan Johnson's 24.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 14.2.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
The New Orleans Saints have gone for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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