Juwan Johnson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:05 PM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+351/-690).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +426 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +351.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Juwan Johnson has been an integral part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 12.9% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 77th percentile among TEs.
Juwan Johnson has put up a monstrous 23.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 77th percentile among tight ends.
Juwan Johnson grades out in the 86th percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.29 per game.
The New Orleans Saints O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 61.3 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
Juwan Johnson's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 63.2% to 45.2%.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (69%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (69.0%).