Juwan Johnson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+349/-676).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in the NFL (75.5%) vs. TEs this year (75.5%).
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers rank as the 8th-worst collection of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line has allowed their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 5th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded the 7th-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL to tight ends: 0.23 per game this year.
The Atlanta Falcons pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.

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