Juwan Johnson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+402/-861).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -832 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -861.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a big 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Juwan Johnson has been an integral part of his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 14.3% this year, which puts him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
Juwan Johnson has put up significantly more air yards this year (37.0 per game) than he did last year (17.0 per game).
Juwan Johnson's 27.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 14.2.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 56.5 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (68.6%) versus tight ends this year (68.6%).
The San Francisco 49ers defense has conceded the 8th-least passing TDs in the league to tight ends: 0.20 per game this year.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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