Juwan Johnson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+390/-817).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -769 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -817.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Juwan Johnson has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 14.0% this year, which puts him in the 80th percentile among TEs.
Juwan Johnson has compiled far more air yards this season (35.0 per game) than he did last season (17.0 per game).
Juwan Johnson's 26.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 14.2.
Juwan Johnson's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 63.2% to 70.0%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.1%) to TEs this year (63.1%).
The Los Angeles Rams defense has yielded the 9th-least touchdowns through the air in football to TEs: 0.22 per game this year.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends project as the 4th-best group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

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