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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Justin Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-122/-106).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (38.6 per game) this year.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

Justin Watson's 83.6% Adjusted Catch% this season shows a meaningful boost in his receiving prowess over last season's 52.7% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a huge 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Justin Watson's 15.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 34.7.

With a measly 1.7 adjusted catches per game (24th percentile) this year, Justin Watson rates as one of the bottom wide receivers in the NFL in the league.

The Tampa Bay cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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