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Justin Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+110).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +140 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (64.8% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Kansas City Chiefs.The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Las Vegas's collection of safeties has been terrible this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 9-point advantage, the Chiefs are heavily favored this week, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their usual approach.At the moment, the 7th-most sluggish paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Chiefs.Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Raiders, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a measly 29.0 per game) this year.Justin Watson's 14.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 34.7.Justin Watson is positioned as one of the bottom wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a measly 1.4 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 20th percentile when it comes to WRs.
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