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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Carolina Panthers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Justin Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 65.8% pass rate.

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the best in the NFL this year.

Justin Watson's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 52.7% to 84.9%.

This year, the shaky Panthers pass defense has conceded a monstrous 68.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 7th-worst rate in football.

The Panthers safeties rank as the 5th-worst unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Chiefs being a big 11-point favorite this week.

At the present time, the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs.

Justin Watson's 17.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 34.7.

More Justin Watson Player Props

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