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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Justin Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The 3rd-most plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a massive 61.3 per game on average).

Opposing teams have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: 9th-most in football.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the best in the league this year.

Justin Watson's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 52.7% to 83.4%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have only 124.6 offensive plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.

Justin Watson's 17.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 34.7.

More Justin Watson Player Props

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